The Cyprus Composite Leading Economic Inde (CCLEI) recorded a year-over-year increase of 2.4% in Apri 2022, reaching a level of 108.5, after year-over-year increases of 5.4% in March and 7.7% in February 2022 (based on recent and revised data).
The positive year-over-year growth rate of the CCLEI continues to slow down in April 2022. More specifically, the jump in the Brent Crude oil price in April 2022 to historically high levels contributes to the slowdown in the positive year-over-year growth rate of the CCLEI in April. The Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESI) in the euro area and in Cyprus also contribute to the slowdown of the CCLEI. The Russo-Ukrainian war, the sanctions against Russia and the high inflation undermine the confidence of both consumers and businesses. Consequently, the ESI in the euro area recorded a deterioration while the CCLEI is only weakly improved in April 2022 compared to last year. In addition, further barriers to the growth of the CCLEI are added by the volume of retail sales and the temperature-adjusted volume of electricity production. In particular, their year-over-year growth rates fell in April, according to preliminary data. In contrast, the value of credit card transactions, tourists’ arrivals, and the total property sales contracts continue to positively bear the CCLEI, recording an acceleration in their growth rate in April 2022, compared to the corresponding month last year.
In summary, although the Cypriot economy showed signs of recovery from the pandemic crisis, the continuing slowing growth rate of the CCLEI in April 2022 reflects the uncertainty and implications stemming from the Russo-Ukrainian war, sanctions against Russia, high inflation, but also the new measures against the pandemic in Asia. Further information regarding the methodology of constructing the CCLEI can be found at: CCLEI
Notes:
- The CCLEI Index is estimated based on the econometric model of Aruoba, Diebold and Scotti (ADS) (2009).
- The CCLEI for April 2022 is constructed based on the availability of the Brent Crude oil price, the ESI in the euro area and in Cyprus, the total number of property sales contracts, the value of credit card transactions, as well as the high frequency data of the passengers’ arrivals and the temperature-adjusted volume of electricity production in April, while the retail sales volume is estimated based on the latest available information in a series of various economic indicators.